Studies say Austin-San Antonio passenger rail requires $13B or a route UP resists

A passenger rail link between Austin and San Antonio is being proposed with two very different paths forward. The two choices are laid out in separate studies released this summer, both prepared by engineering firm HNTB.

TxDOT published a study in June that considered adding passenger trains to the existing Union Pacific corridor. Travis County released the study on whether a new railroad could be built along SH 130 and I-10. The 62-page report cost almost $125,000.

At a high level, engineers found either concept could work. But the studies also exposed the tradeoffs that have prevented Austin-San Antonio passenger rail from becoming a reality, despite millions of dollars spent on studies and planning.

On paper, the Union Pacific option is more affordable. TxDOT studied running up to eight round trips a day between Austin and San Antonio, with stops in New Braunfels and San Marcos. The most ambitious scenario would require almost $1.9 billion in new tracks, signals, stations and other infrastructure. Annual operation and maintenance costs could top $61 million.

However, Union Pacific says its freight railroad doesn't have capacity for any more passenger trains beyond the extremely limited existing service. Amtrak's slow rolling Texas Eagle runs only once a day, and even that service arrives on schedule just 56% of the time.

The other option would build an all-new, mostly elevated railroad starting at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport and following State Highway 130 to Interstate 10. That avoids Union Pacific but bypasses the biggest population centers between Austin and San Antonio. It also comes with a much heftier price tag: $13.5 billion.

The SH 130 to I-10 option studied by Travis County avoids the need to cooperate with Union Pacific, but introduces several other problems. HNTB estimates nearly 54 miles of the roughly 90-mile route would have to be elevated. The $13.5 billion estimate, which doesn't account for any inflation, includes a 45% cost cushion known as a "contingency.

The price tag includes $360 million for six trains, each with two locomotives and three coach cars, plus a $300 million operations and maintenance facility. The estimate assumes minimal highway reconstruction or land acquisition, and doesn't include interest on any potential debt. Running the trains could cost another $140 million to $190 million each year. The Travis County study didn't forecast ridership so it can't say how much fare revenue could offset those costs.

Source: TexasDOT